Showing posts with label casualties. Show all posts

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Repost - Forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy). More > >

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Forecasting with more confidence, issuing warning

By saner standards, in a span of less than two years, it is possible to modernize the PAGASA, PHIVOLCS of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the attached agencies of Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) that are now supposedly doing hazards mapping to increase their capacity to be able to tell the public with adequate confidence about the best course of action to take before another devastating calamity threatens their personal and loved ones' safety and avoid the tremendous loss of lives that recently happened with Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

The article below shows how the unconfident forecasting about the super typhoon may no longer be done in the future so as not to let a forecastable calamity unnecessary claim the precious lives of thousands of victims - Filipinos or foreigners alike. It is believed that the perhaps, one thing that could have saved the lives of many of the victims was trust. A solid trust in the forecasts and faith in the public warnings.

Helpless casualties

Before there could have been trust from the people, there should have been real certainty and conviction in the first place. That is what needs to be drummed into the people in our weather bureau and the earthquake sensing, among other forecasting agencies in the government. After all, with the money the taxpayers are paying to sustain them and give them enormous opportunities for self-growth through numerous continuing education benefits, foreign travels, among many other privileges the people in these agencies should be paying back the public with at least better and more sincere service.

Without the modernization, it is sad to issue the advance forecast, that we're all really dead.

The Story of the Haiyan Forecasting Fiasco

Over the more than a week we have been engaged in preparing a paper on the subject of Philippine forecasting with higher level of confidence. The paper is due to be published soon. Due to the timid and shy forecasting by the Philippine government, thousands of helpless victims lay dead floating in the seas off Tacloban and other towns as well as littering the streets in many areas devastated by Super Typhoon #Haiyan codenamed #Yolanda.

Below are samples of the Severe Storm Warnings by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) that were prepared with the data generated by the Philippine weather bureau:

Thursday, 07 November 2013 00:57

NDRRMC Update and Advisory re Severe Weather Bulletin for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)

Attachments:
	[issued on 09 November 2013, 3:30PM]	256 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.12 (FINAL) for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 09 November 2013, 3:30PM]	265 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.11 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 09 November 2013, 11:00AM]	279 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.11 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 09 November 2013, 11:00AM]	289 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.10 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 09 November 2013, 5:00AM]	924 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.10 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 09 November 2013, 5:00AM]	964 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.9 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00PM]	283 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.9 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00PM]	294 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.8 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00PM]	400 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.8 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00PM]	417 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.7 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00AM]	390 Kb
NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.7 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00AM]	387 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.6 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)	[issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00AM]	1202 Kb
NDRRMC Update re SWB No.6 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)

Monday, September 16, 2013

No contest

Feed from Rebus 21:

Zamboanga City Siege: As in many other conflicts, it is glaringly apparent that there is no quarrel between the soldiers on the government side and the fighters on the side of the Moro National Liberation Front - MNLF. As for the volunteer workers who are in the vicinity where the hostilities are, they do not have any ax to grind vs. either the government nor MNLF.

Civilian government officials, particularly from the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process - OPAPP, in particular Hon. Secretary Teresita "Qing" Deles, confessed over the national media that they invited Misuari Nur to the talks but he won't participate.

Hon. Secretary Deles however also said they regret having neglected the MNLF and not giving them enough importance. She and her subordinates at OPAPP did not know the full weight of not wholly involving Misuari, she said.

On the other hand, such oversight if committed without malice, does not really matter. The Honorable Secretary already made it clear that Misuari did not show interest in participation. Read the rest of this article here.

The Distraction brought by fighting Climate Change

After the 2005 Hyogo Conference, scientists urged the United Nations to consider that the various conflicting issues surrounding Climate Change is "distracting governments" from providing solutions to threats of disasters worldwide.

"The current UN focus on "fighting climate change," as illustrated in the Nov. 27 UN Development Programme's Human Development Report, is distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National and international planning for such changes is needed, with a focus on helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and pressing problems."

A letter written to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon ventilated sentiments of scientists and technology experts on the issue of focusing deeper into finding means to adapt to the threat of climate change.

A network of connected hazards

The Global Geohazard System

Crisis Mapping

In 2008 we determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and. government on the other side. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, we resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.

This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peace keeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.

After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people.

Changed Parameters

One year later, the entire universe for the crisis mapping project had changed. It cannot be called a drastic change since the new directions fell within range of long-held advocacies and persistent efforts. We had began such efforts by provoking officials at the Department of National Defense to modernize.

Among the sources for concepts and ideas of our papers given to the department was an executive formerly engaged as part of a service provider group at a Saudi Arabia military base. The Saudi military and government, thanks to their foreign high-tech service providers in the late 80s were already advanced in the use of GIS, the digitization of all documents, exploiting satellite information among many things.

With various other inputs from visiting colleagues, the advocacy for a fully functional satellite research, GPS and GIS-ready system was pushed at defense department, the National Security Council and at the Department of Transportation and Communications through the suggestion of the administrative officer of the defense secretary. More > >

Environment Hazards. Crisis Mapping. Forecasting.

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