Repost - Forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy). More > >

Forecasting with more confidence, issuing warning

By saner standards, in a span of less than two years, it is possible to modernize the PAGASA, PHIVOLCS of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) and the attached agencies of Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) that are now supposedly doing hazards mapping to increase their capacity to be able to tell the public with adequate confidence about the best course of action to take before another devastating calamity threatens their personal and loved ones' safety and avoid the tremendous loss of lives that recently happened with Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

The article below shows how the unconfident forecasting about the super typhoon may no longer be done in the future so as not to let a forecastable calamity unnecessary claim the precious lives of thousands of victims - Filipinos or foreigners alike. It is believed that the perhaps, one thing that could have saved the lives of many of the victims was trust. A solid trust in the forecasts and faith in the public warnings.

Helpless casualties

Before there could have been trust from the people, there should have been real certainty and conviction in the first place. That is what needs to be drummed into the people in our weather bureau and the earthquake sensing, among other forecasting agencies in the government. After all, with the money the taxpayers are paying to sustain them and give them enormous opportunities for self-growth through numerous continuing education benefits, foreign travels, among many other privileges the people in these agencies should be paying back the public with at least better and more sincere service.

Without the modernization, it is sad to issue the advance forecast, that we're all really dead.