Philippines update. Saving Lives: Who needs FWEMSAR?

For a long time, it has been the conventional wisdom to expose skilled, highly trained and properly vetted personnel to extreme dangers - sometimes equal or greater than that which confronts counter-terrorist or counter-drug operations elements. Yet this is the job of Rescue, or more aptly as it is called, SAR - Search and Rescue.

We believe in the significance of SAR. However, for the benefit of both the party being rescued and the rescuer, we stand in our conviction that beyond post-disaster search and rescue or SAR during the incumbency of a disaster, it would be a positive addition to the design to introduce Forewarning and Early Measures.

The United States of America for example has the SAR Task Force.  Under the SARTF are units for instance such as the United States Air Force Para Rescue. Brazil's Ministry of Defense has Operation Rescue under the defense ministry's Subsidiary Actions. China Coast Guard - among others - undertake SAR operations within the bounds of the People's Republic of China. Taiwan has its own CMC Taiwan Rescue.

In the Philippines, in 1990-1991, the authors were requested to form a plan for the Reactivation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Forest Ranger Battalion. Together with the plan, also submitted were other proposals relevant to disaster response.

The reactivation of the Forest Ranger Battalion was not approved at the Department of National Defense. A good number of the proposals detailing the pressing need for modernization of defense assets, equipment and technologies, for making disaster and emergency response more effective and efficient were adopted as the department's position by then Secretary Fidel Valdez Ramos.

Global Geohazard System (extended discussion)

Environmental Risks, Forecasting

 View in pdf form or download file from here

Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

The forecast of members of the scientific community that massive casualties will be experienced in the next big disaster that will hit the Philippines is accurate.

One of the greatest concerns is that the target of the next big one is the Philippines national capital region: Metropolitan Manila.

With a nighttime population of more than 12 million, in daytime Metro Manila has a population volume of nearly 20 million or higher during peak seasons.

Metro Manila is also home to many international agency headquarters such as the Asian Development Bank and all the home offices of foreign embassies are located in the capital region.

Too many factors can account for the exactitude and correctness of the prediction of massive casualties – not the least amongst them, the lack of state-of-the-art data and information ferreting equipment. Scientific expertise and knowhow in the use of new technology for tidal wave, weather, seismic event, volcanic eruption forecasting is not necessarily lacking in the Philippines.

However, it must be conceded that the Philippines does not have enough or adequate experience in handling satellite launch, management and earth observation operations.

To compound the problem ten-folds it is learned through the media, that intervention by interest groups in purveying vital data to the public about earthquake faults, the shameless impunity with which big companies are shunting regulations against building big structures on top of sites highly vulnerable to earthquake faults, also compound the danger of the Philippines suffering a large multitude of people getting killed during a big disaster incident involving the shaking of the Marikina West Valley Fault System.  More > >

The Story of the Haiyan Forecasting Fiasco

Over the more than a week we have been engaged in preparing a paper on the subject of Philippine forecasting with higher level of confidence. The paper is due to be published soon. Due to the timid and shy forecasting by the Philippine government, thousands of helpless victims lay dead floating in the seas off Tacloban and other towns as well as littering the streets in many areas devastated by Super Typhoon #Haiyan codenamed #Yolanda.

Below are samples of the Severe Storm Warnings by the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) that were prepared with the data generated by the Philippine weather bureau:

Thursday, 07 November 2013 00:57

NDRRMC Update and Advisory re Severe Weather Bulletin for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) Attachments: [issued on 09 November 2013, 3:30PM] 256 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.12 (FINAL) for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 09 November 2013, 3:30PM] 265 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.11 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 09 November 2013, 11:00AM] 279 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.11 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 09 November 2013, 11:00AM] 289 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.10 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 09 November 2013, 5:00AM] 924 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.10 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 09 November 2013, 5:00AM] 964 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.9 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00PM] 283 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.9 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00PM] 294 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.8 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00PM] 400 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.8 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00PM] 417 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.7 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00AM] 390 Kb NDRRMC Advisory re SWB No.7 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 11:00AM] 387 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.6 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN) [issued on 08 November 2013, 5:00AM] 1202 Kb NDRRMC Update re SWB No.6 for Typhoon YOLANDA (HAIYAN)